Beau Peep Notice Board

Beau Peep Notice Board => Saloon Bar => Topic started by: Roger Kettle on June 30, 2008, 09:07:09 PM

Title: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Roger Kettle on June 30, 2008, 09:07:09 PM
Mighty quiet in here so I thought I'd mosey on in for a beer. Here are a few true tales from the Old West....
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".
This is the last day of June. The Sioux name for this month was "the moon of ripening berries".
Among his family, Custer's nickname was "Autie". As a boy, this was how he pronounced his own middle name, Armstrong. You have to say this was not a great attempt.
At the Battle of the Little Bighorn. there were 379 immigrant soldiers from 25 different countries.
The outlaw, John Wesley Hardin, was once sleeping in a hotel when the snoring from the adjoining room woke him. He fired two bullets through the wall, instantly killing the culprit and, at the same time, inventing the world's quickest cure for snoring.
Okay, I've finished my beer so it's time to mosey back out to the street...
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Mince on June 30, 2008, 10:15:45 PM
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".

But the chance of having that particular hand (assuming that all hands have equal probability) is:

ACE + ACE + EIGHT + EIGHT + QUEEN

4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * (13C4) = 0.0023

So 0.2% of all hands will be a Dead Man's Hand. So if he played at least 1000 games of poker, he would have obtained a Dead Man's Hand at least twice, and so the "unsurprisingly" loses some of its irony.

Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: madjock on July 01, 2008, 12:45:16 AM
 ..0 I really do feel sorry for any of the pupils you teach Mince.  ..0
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Tarquin Thunderthighs lll on July 01, 2008, 02:02:30 AM
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".

But the chance of having that particular hand (assuming that all hands have equal probability) is:

ACE + ACE + EIGHT + EIGHT + QUEEN

4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * (13C4) = 0.0023

So 0.2% of all hands will be a Dead Man's Hand. So if he played at least 1000 games of poker, he would have obtained a Dead Man's Hand at least twice, and so the "unsurprisingly" loses some of its irony.



Okay, it's late, and I may be missing something obvious here, but wasn't the hand named 'Dead Man's Hand' because Hickok was holding those cards when he was killed, not because he the hand resulted in his death? I saw no irony in Roger's use of the word "unsurprisingly", and therefore your sums were a complete and utter waste of time.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: The Peepmaster on July 01, 2008, 02:49:09 AM
And also he was highly unlikely to get a "Dead Man's Hand" again in his lifetime anyway.  ..0

Happy July, everybody. (We had it here first).
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Mince on July 01, 2008, 04:29:52 AM
Okay, it's late, and I may be missing something obvious here, but wasn't the hand named 'Dead Man's Hand' because Hickok was holding those cards when he was killed, not because he the hand resulted in his death? I saw no irony in Roger's use of the word "unsurprisingly", and therefore your sums were a complete and utter waste of time.

So I misread it. Sue me.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Vulture on July 01, 2008, 06:10:43 AM
Leave Mince alone, Tarks. Showing his 'superiority' and blinding us with maths keeps him happy!
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: The Peepmaster on July 01, 2008, 12:20:32 PM
Leave Mince alone, Tarks. Showing his 'superiority' and blinding us with maths keeps him happy!

I think Mince might have just scored.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Fyodor on July 01, 2008, 03:54:14 PM
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".

But the chance of having that particular hand (assuming that all hands have equal probability) is:

ACE + ACE + EIGHT + EIGHT + QUEEN

4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * (13C4) = 0.0023

So 0.2% of all hands will be a Dead Man's Hand. So if he played at least 1000 games of poker, he would have obtained a Dead Man's Hand at least twice, and so the "unsurprisingly" loses some of its irony.

I don't think so. I can see where you're coming from, but the (13C4)
term doesn't make sense to me. The bit before that is the probability
of getting the 5 cards dealt in the order AA88Q, and it looks like the
 (13C4) is an attempt to adjust for the different possible orders, but
it doesn't make sense.

What you need to do for the last term is to multiply the probabilities
by the number of different orders you could get AA88Q in. It doesn't
matter which suits they are, as you've already allowed for that in the
earlier calculation (4/52 refers to any ace).

The actual number of ways you can arrange AA88Q is 30. This comes from
the number of ways to arrange 5 cards = 5! = 5*4*3*2*1=120. Then since
you have 2 aces you have to divide this by 2! (which equals 2), to get
60, and then by 2! again for the eights to get 30.

So the actual probability is 4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * 30 =
0.0000554 , or approximately a one in eighteen thousand chance.

We can confirm this by thinking about it slightly differently. We can
calculate how many different poker hands there are, i.e. the number of
ways to choose 5 cards from 52. This is the calculation (52 C 5) which
can be calculated as 2598960. Then we need to work out how many of
these are the dead man's hand. There are 6 possible ways to choose two
aces, 6 possible ways to choose two eights, and 4 possible queens.
Multiply these together 6x6x4 = 144 possible dead man's hands.

So the probability of a dead man's hand is 144/2598960 = 0.0000554,
the same as above.



Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Tarquin Thunderthighs lll on July 01, 2008, 04:23:19 PM
Can we call it a bore draw?  ..0 ..0
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: The Peepmaster on July 01, 2008, 04:30:24 PM
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".

But the chance of having that particular hand (assuming that all hands have equal probability) is:

ACE + ACE + EIGHT + EIGHT + QUEEN

4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * (13C4) = 0.0023

So 0.2% of all hands will be a Dead Man's Hand. So if he played at least 1000 games of poker, he would have obtained a Dead Man's Hand at least twice, and so the "unsurprisingly" loses some of its irony.

I don't think so. I can see where you're coming from, but the (13C4)
term doesn't make sense to me. The bit before that is the probability
of getting the 5 cards dealt in the order AA88Q, and it looks like the
 (13C4) is an attempt to adjust for the different possible orders, but
it doesn't make sense.

What you need to do for the last term is to multiply the probabilities
by the number of different orders you could get AA88Q in. It doesn't
matter which suits they are, as you've already allowed for that in the
earlier calculation (4/52 refers to any ace).

The actual number of ways you can arrange AA88Q is 30. This comes from
the number of ways to arrange 5 cards = 5! = 5*4*3*2*1=120. Then since
you have 2 aces you have to divide this by 2! (which equals 2), to get
60, and then by 2! again for the eights to get 30.

So the actual probability is 4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * 30 =
0.0000554 , or approximately a one in eighteen thousand chance.

We can confirm this by thinking about it slightly differently. We can
calculate how many different poker hands there are, i.e. the number of
ways to choose 5 cards from 52. This is the calculation (52 C 5) which
can be calculated as 2598960. Then we need to work out how many of
these are the dead man's hand. There are 6 possible ways to choose two
aces, 6 possible ways to choose two eights, and 4 possible queens.
Multiply these together 6x6x4 = 144 possible dead man's hands.

So the probability of a dead man's hand is 144/2598960 = 0.0000554,
the same as above.


You took the words right out of my mouth, Fido!  ..0
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Roger Kettle on July 01, 2008, 06:18:56 PM
Unsurprisingly, I couldn't care less.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Mince on July 01, 2008, 06:23:59 PM
Unsurprisingly, I couldn't care less.

You make it sound as though this is choice on your part.  :)
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Mince on July 01, 2008, 06:25:50 PM
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".

But the chance of having that particular hand (assuming that all hands have equal probability) is:

ACE + ACE + EIGHT + EIGHT + QUEEN

4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * (13C4) = 0.0023

So 0.2% of all hands will be a Dead Man's Hand. So if he played at least 1000 games of poker, he would have obtained a Dead Man's Hand at least twice, and so the "unsurprisingly" loses some of its irony.

I don't think so. I can see where you're coming from, but the (13C4)
term doesn't make sense to me. The bit before that is the probability
of getting the 5 cards dealt in the order AA88Q, and it looks like the
 (13C4) is an attempt to adjust for the different possible orders, but
it doesn't make sense.

What you need to do for the last term is to multiply the probabilities
by the number of different orders you could get AA88Q in. It doesn't
matter which suits they are, as you've already allowed for that in the
earlier calculation (4/52 refers to any ace).

The actual number of ways you can arrange AA88Q is 30. This comes from
the number of ways to arrange 5 cards = 5! = 5*4*3*2*1=120. Then since
you have 2 aces you have to divide this by 2! (which equals 2), to get
60, and then by 2! again for the eights to get 30.

So the actual probability is 4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * 30 =
0.0000554 , or approximately a one in eighteen thousand chance.

We can confirm this by thinking about it slightly differently. We can
calculate how many different poker hands there are, i.e. the number of
ways to choose 5 cards from 52. This is the calculation (52 C 5) which
can be calculated as 2598960. Then we need to work out how many of
these are the dead man's hand. There are 6 possible ways to choose two
aces, 6 possible ways to choose two eights, and 4 possible queens.
Multiply these together 6x6x4 = 144 possible dead man's hands.

So the probability of a dead man's hand is 144/2598960 = 0.0000554,
the same as above.

Yes, I know, but Roger would not have known the difference.

The answer would have been better if you had stuck either to permutations or to combinations.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Vulture on July 01, 2008, 07:39:53 PM
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".

But the chance of having that particular hand (assuming that all hands have equal probability) is:

ACE + ACE + EIGHT + EIGHT + QUEEN

4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * (13C4) = 0.0023

So 0.2% of all hands will be a Dead Man's Hand. So if he played at least 1000 games of poker, he would have obtained a Dead Man's Hand at least twice, and so the "unsurprisingly" loses some of its irony.

I don't think so. I can see where you're coming from, but the (13C4)
term doesn't make sense to me. The bit before that is the probability
of getting the 5 cards dealt in the order AA88Q, and it looks like the
 (13C4) is an attempt to adjust for the different possible orders, but
it doesn't make sense.

What you need to do for the last term is to multiply the probabilities
by the number of different orders you could get AA88Q in. It doesn't
matter which suits they are, as you've already allowed for that in the
earlier calculation (4/52 refers to any ace).

The actual number of ways you can arrange AA88Q is 30. This comes from
the number of ways to arrange 5 cards = 5! = 5*4*3*2*1=120. Then since
you have 2 aces you have to divide this by 2! (which equals 2), to get
60, and then by 2! again for the eights to get 30.

So the actual probability is 4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * 30 =
0.0000554 , or approximately a one in eighteen thousand chance.

We can confirm this by thinking about it slightly differently. We can
calculate how many different poker hands there are, i.e. the number of
ways to choose 5 cards from 52. This is the calculation (52 C 5) which
can be calculated as 2598960. Then we need to work out how many of
these are the dead man's hand. There are 6 possible ways to choose two
aces, 6 possible ways to choose two eights, and 4 possible queens.
Multiply these together 6x6x4 = 144 possible dead man's hands.

So the probability of a dead man's hand is 144/2598960 = 0.0000554,
the same as above.

Yes, I know, but Roger would not have known the difference.

The answer would have been better if you had stuck either to permutations or to combinations.

Who wears combinations in the middle of summer?
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Joan on July 02, 2008, 08:43:47 AM
Happy July, everybody. (We had it here first).

I'm not really one for oneupmanship, Peepmaster, but Malc and I had it a couple of hours before you!
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: The Peepmaster on July 02, 2008, 11:17:40 AM
Happy July, everybody. (We had it here first).

I'm not really one for oneupmanship, Peepmaster, but Malc and I had it a couple of hours before you!

That thought had occurred to me, Joan!
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Mince on July 02, 2008, 01:20:50 PM
That thought had occurred to me, Joan!

Next time it occurs to you to think, perhaps you might try it out.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Fyodor on July 04, 2008, 09:57:13 AM
When Wild Bill Hickok was killed in a Deadwood bar, he was playing poker. He was holding two aces, two eights and a queen----now known, unsurprisingly, as "Dead Man's Hand".

But the chance of having that particular hand (assuming that all hands have equal probability) is:

ACE + ACE + EIGHT + EIGHT + QUEEN

4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * (13C4) = 0.0023

So 0.2% of all hands will be a Dead Man's Hand. So if he played at least 1000 games of poker, he would have obtained a Dead Man's Hand at least twice, and so the "unsurprisingly" loses some of its irony.

I don't think so. I can see where you're coming from, but the (13C4)
term doesn't make sense to me. The bit before that is the probability
of getting the 5 cards dealt in the order AA88Q, and it looks like the
 (13C4) is an attempt to adjust for the different possible orders, but
it doesn't make sense.

What you need to do for the last term is to multiply the probabilities
by the number of different orders you could get AA88Q in. It doesn't
matter which suits they are, as you've already allowed for that in the
earlier calculation (4/52 refers to any ace).

The actual number of ways you can arrange AA88Q is 30. This comes from
the number of ways to arrange 5 cards = 5! = 5*4*3*2*1=120. Then since
you have 2 aces you have to divide this by 2! (which equals 2), to get
60, and then by 2! again for the eights to get 30.

So the actual probability is 4/52 * 3/51 * 4/50 * 3/49 * 4/48 * 30 =
0.0000554 , or approximately a one in eighteen thousand chance.

We can confirm this by thinking about it slightly differently. We can
calculate how many different poker hands there are, i.e. the number of
ways to choose 5 cards from 52. This is the calculation (52 C 5) which
can be calculated as 2598960. Then we need to work out how many of
these are the dead man's hand. There are 6 possible ways to choose two
aces, 6 possible ways to choose two eights, and 4 possible queens.
Multiply these together 6x6x4 = 144 possible dead man's hands.

So the probability of a dead man's hand is 144/2598960 = 0.0000554,
the same as above.

Yes, I know, but Roger would not have known the difference.

The answer would have been better if you had stuck either to permutations or to combinations.

I gave 2 methods of arriving at the correct answer. You gave one method
of arriving at the wrong answer. I think we may be able to agree which
is better.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Tarquin Thunderthighs lll on July 04, 2008, 10:00:21 AM
COMING SOON - a mathematical explanation of The Offside Law.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Mince on July 04, 2008, 01:45:58 PM
I gave 2 methods of arriving at the correct answer. You gave one method
of arriving at the wrong answer. I think we may be able to agree which
is better.

How are you defining "better"? My only purpose was to convince Roger of something mathematical, and quite frankly I could have written the solution to a quadratic equation and he would have been none the wiser. Your method, on the other hand, was rather overkill. I just could not be bothered to look up the equation for combinations and permutations.

Or are you proposing maths duels at dawn?  ;D
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: The Peepmaster on July 04, 2008, 02:58:09 PM
I gave 2 methods of arriving at the correct answer. You gave one method
of arriving at the wrong answer. I think we may be able to agree which
is better.


Or are you proposing maths duels at dawn?  ;D

If it involves terminating your existence, I'm all for it.  ..0
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Fyodor on July 04, 2008, 06:00:04 PM
I gave 2 methods of arriving at the correct answer. You gave one method
of arriving at the wrong answer. I think we may be able to agree which
is better.

How are you defining "better"? My only purpose was to convince Roger of something mathematical, and quite frankly I could have written the solution to a quadratic equation and he would have been none the wiser. Your method, on the other hand, was rather overkill. I just could not be bothered to look up the equation for combinations and permutations.

Or are you proposing maths duels at dawn?  ;D
Last word. Word.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Roger Kettle on July 04, 2008, 06:26:44 PM
He don't like it when you stick it up him, Fido!
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Tom on July 04, 2008, 07:24:32 PM
Does this mean we're heading for a high noon showdown?
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Malc on August 17, 2008, 01:19:59 PM
Quote
I'm not really one for oneupmanship, Peepmaster, but Malc and I had it a couple of hours before you!

Joan, kindly stop blabbing to people every time you and I have it.

Are you back yet? I thought we might have it again. I brought the stuff.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Joan on August 17, 2008, 02:31:35 PM
Not back yet, Malc - three more weeks to go.  Thought it was my turn to bring the stuff.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Malc on August 17, 2008, 06:09:49 PM
Oh, ok. Could you get it in tubes this time? Fourteen should do it. It rots through the paper cups. I don't know how you women manage to keep it all in. My eyes water after a couple of minutes.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Joan on August 17, 2008, 07:52:25 PM
We're made of stern stuff, Malc ... and what are you doing up at 3.10am?  Been indulging in the leftovers from last time?
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Joan on August 17, 2008, 10:13:24 PM
Big tubes or little tubes?
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Malc on August 18, 2008, 02:20:27 AM
Little tubes! I'm not made of stone, woman!

I was up watching the Man U game and decided to post a couple of messages afterwards. Another huge drawback to living in Oz is the time that EPL games are broadcast live.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Joan on August 18, 2008, 04:38:03 PM
Little tubes! I'm not made of stone, woman!

When this little conversation started I wondered how long it would take for me to be out of my depth - not long!  I'm well in over my head and if I try to reply to that, I have the feeling the water I'm in will be hot.

Oh, what the heck ...

What are you made of then?  Where's your mettle, man?
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Malc on August 19, 2008, 02:40:40 AM
My mettle's here under this cushion. I had it made into a weighty upper garment with short sleeves.

It's a heavy mettle t-shirt.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Vulture on August 19, 2008, 06:31:49 AM
My mettle's here under this cushion. I had it made into a weighty upper garment with short sleeves.

It's a heavy mettle t-shirt.

 <-
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Joan on August 19, 2008, 09:50:01 AM
So, definitely not hard rock then?
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Vulture on August 19, 2008, 11:23:44 AM
So, definitely not hard rock then?

You should be so lucky!
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Tarquin Thunderthighs lll on August 19, 2008, 11:24:46 AM
 :o
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Joan on August 19, 2008, 11:35:41 AM
VULTURE! Really!   :o :o :o

I was referring to the music genre. (http://www.clipartof.com/images/emoticons/xsmall2/2242_angelic.gif) (http://www.clipartof.com)
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Malc on August 21, 2008, 07:18:13 AM
For a minute it was like being in the dressing room with my ladies team. They are getting very used to me now. After the last game, during my post-match talk in the changing rooms, two of them turned modestly away and took their bras off.

One more season and I reckon I can get us all showering together.
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Tarquin Thunderthighs lll on August 21, 2008, 10:34:03 AM
You were counting, Malc?
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Vulture on August 21, 2008, 11:41:26 AM


One more season and I reckon I can get us all showering together.



He wasn't counting - he was dreaming....!
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: The Peepmaster on August 21, 2008, 05:06:20 PM
I don't suppose he's got a YouTube clip of that...  :(
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Vulture on August 21, 2008, 06:26:05 PM
I don't suppose he's got a YouTube clip of that...  :(

Possibly.... but for private viewing only!  ..0
Title: Re: A Drink In The Ol' Saloon.
Post by: Malc on August 22, 2008, 12:19:54 AM
I wasn't counting, no, but I suspect they had two each.