How are you all doing?

[Roger Kettle]

I hope that all of you and your families and friends are safe and well. It would appear that there is a glimmer of welcome light at the end of a long and horrible tunnel. (Forgive the cliche---these are not creative times). Anyway, it looks like the first vaccines will roll out in Britain next week. Of course, there are conspiracy theorists around who insist that these inoculations will include mind-control microchips from either Martians or Bill Gates. They're probably right but I'm going to go ahead when the opportunity comes my way. In fact, the chances are I'll punch a path through the queue of elderly ladies in front of me.
Okay, I'm being flippant about all this and I apologise. I genuinely hope that none of you has been affected by this awful virus. I was one of those who, naively, believed that a couple of months shutdown back in March would sort everything out. I was hopelessly wrong and the ongoing awfulness has been difficult to deal with. These have been very dark days for all of us and, like everyone, I yearn for the return of happier days. On the plus side, my wife says I look better in a mask.
Be safe.

[Diane CBPFC]

Diane reporting in from the C.B.P.F.C. all our members are listed at "fair to middling" 

[Tarquin Thunderthighs lll]

I shan't gloat because it's anything but a proud boast, but reading between many lines at the start of this year, I always thought we'd be where we are now, if not worse. That said, I see your "glimmer of welcome light" as a massive great beacon, Roger, and am striding towards it as fast as I can. I shan't be barging anyone out of the way (nor would you), unless they are the nay-sayers, conspiracy theorists and morons who are so frightened of a little prick that they're prepared to swallow absolute drivel instead. They'll be telling us that prominent people are drinking the blood of babies next. Oh, wait...they already are.    Make it compulsory, I say!

Gawd, I hate this fence I'm sitting on. 

[Mince]

My family and I have been quite fine with the lockdown. That's not to say we don't want it to be over.

We have taken as many precautions as humanly possible not to catch Covid. We were slightly more lax when the cases were low, and I occasionally shopped in town with masks and gloves, but since then we have just stayed at home. Anything that comes to the house gets quarantined for seven days in the loft. If it's fruit and vegetables, it gets quarantined for two days in some large Really Useful boxes and then washed. If it's for the fridge or freezer, the plastic packaging gets washed thoroughly in the bath with soap and then rinsed, or if it's in cardboard packaging, the food is tipped into a baking tray and packaging is chucked in the bin, never coming into the house.

Despite the precautions, I have in the last month or so twice briefly thought I had caught Covid, with tests both times showing I am negative, and that has not been pleasant. Covid is insidious and pervasive, and I will have no problem taking the vaccine when it's available. I'll also be happier once I know my parents and wider family have had the vaccine.

[Roger Kettle]

Well, I can't claim to have been anything like as conscientious as you, Mince, but I'd like to think I've been both careful and sensible. The problem I have is with the conflicting information and advice that is thrown at us. Because the world is dealing with a new virus, this is understandable but deeply confusing. Here in Scotland, between the months of November 2017 and April 2018, over 23 thousand people died from flu or pneumonia. This is more than five times the amount of people who have died during the nine months of the current pandemic. Nobody I have spoken to can recall any Government intervention at that time. No advice, no warnings and certainly no business closures. Look, I'm not saying that they're getting things wrong now or that they got things wrong THEN but it's all, as I said previously, deeply confusing. In terms of lost lives, we aren't even close to the horrible statistics of three years ago. Not for a second am I underestimating the impact of this dreadful virus or promoting any kind of conspiracy theory.
I will continue to wear a mask, socially distance, wash my hands regularly and clean surfaces.
It's just, well, deeply confusing.

[Mince]

Here in Scotland, between the months of November 2017 and April 2018, over 23 thousand people died from flu or pneumonia.

Where did you get that data?

Government data states that during the last peak flu season (week 40 of 2019 and week 14 of 2020) 1,802 people were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with the flu in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 103 died.

There were 3,017 ICU cases in England in the 2018-19 season, 3,245 in the 2017-18 season and 992 in the 2016-17 season.

If 23,000 died, even at a 5% rate of death, that would require half a million in an intensive care unit in Scotland alone, which is 10% of Scotland's population.

[Mince]

Okay, I think I have found the PDF you are referring to, and the 27,000 is the total Scotland deaths from any cause over that period. The actual flu and pneumonia deaths is 810, which is 7 deaths a day. I believe the total Scotland deaths so far from Covid is 3,889, and that's with two lockdowns. Imagine what these values are going to be by the time winter is over, and imagine what they would have been without the lockdowns.

[Roger Kettle]

I was quoting the writer/historian, Neil Oliver, who is an outspoken critic of the way this pandemic has been handled. At the time I saw his interview, a couple of months ago, I was dubious and checked his statistics online and managed to corroborate them. Annoyingly, I can't find them now! Although, a quick look suggests there were thousands of deaths from flu rather than hundreds during that period.
Anyway, as I said earlier, I'm no conspiracy theorist and stick rigorously to the current regulations. I don't think I'm alone in finding some of the information confusing and, because of that, I'm willing to listen to varying opinions.

[Tarquin Thunderthighs lll]

I have to say that the 27,000 figure over a three month period, as the result of a single disease in a country populated by around five and a half million people, raised at least one eyebrow, Roger. I think the pdf that Mincey posted looks a little more trustworthy to me. Certainly, flu still accounts for many deaths around the globe, but the big difference is that it has a widely available end effective vaccine, and Covid-19 does not. Mercifully, that appears to be about to change, and if enough people take the vaccine, we may even be able to reduce the current death rate to unalarming proportions. I've heard that we'll probably never be completely Coronavirus free, but like flu, it's effect will be greatly reduced and we can get back to some degree of 'normality' (whatever that is).

What is absolutely certain, however, is that the annual death toll from flu-related illnesses would be many times higher than whatever it currently is (and quite possibly much higher than that 27,000, I'm guessing) if it were not for the flu vaccination programme. I've been taking the jab, courtesy of the NHS, for the past 15 years, with barely a sniffle in that time. Except for 2017, when in the excitement of me moving back to Scotland, I forgot all about the jab that year, resulting in a significant  number of pretty heavy colds throughout that year, until the jab in 2018 got me back on track. It works for me, and I'm more than happy to trust that the Covid-19 vaccine will do the same.

As for Neil Oliver... 

[Roger Kettle]

Steve, my good lady and I got our flu jabs at 5 p.m. in a local hall about three weeks ago. The only night out we'd had in ages!

[Mince]

I think the pdf that Mincey posted looks a little more trustworthy to me.

The publication I found was the following: Winter Mortality in Scotland 2017/18

Apparently, from the statistics, the chances of dying from flu if you are unlucky enough to find yourself in the ICU is 5%. I think I shall start getting my flu vaccine.

[Tarquin Thunderthighs lll]

Steve, my good lady and I got our flu jabs at 5 p.m. in a local hall about three weeks ago. The only night out we'd had in ages!

Was there dancin'? Excellent news, Roger!

I think I shall start getting my flu vaccine.

More excellent news!

[Bilthehut]

Down Evesham way we are both fine and healthy, have had our Flu Jabs and am being our usual anti-social selves.  Wifey had to go to hospital to have her gall bladder out.  The system worked very well with her covid test (negative) and day stay.  Her arthroscopy 'holes' are healing nicely and the anti covid measures must have worked in the hospital. 

When the list gets down to us we will be naturally taking the vaccine.  Ive had enough jabs in my military service time to not worry about another one.

We are not being as strict as Mincey but do take precautions and manage to not be in contact with others (other than the daughter ('bubbling') and she is also careful.  We are fortunate to no be that affected and don't have the job worries a great many of the population do.