I can't help wondering what would have happened had this virus materialised 30 years ago. With the internet in its infancy, how many people would have been able to work from home? Or, let's say, even earlier, when this whole branch of technology didn't exist?
Would the governments of the world have taken a completely different approach? I can only assume they would have gone for the "herd" option and taken it from there---perhaps with a few adjustments. Certainly, the numbers of people who could have worked from home would be a tiny percentage of what it is today. Would that have been a better approach?
I doubt even thirty years ago we would have so recklessly gone for herd immunity. Even during the Spanish Flu in 1918, schools, cinemas and bars were closed, public events were banned, and social distancing was practised, all to flatten the curve.
Anyway, let's focus on the positive stuff. I mentioned this earlier but 99% of people who contract this disease will survive. This is an official figure. (As official as anything can be these days). Measles is seven times more contagious. This will pass.
Measles is a ridiculously contagious airborne virus that would laugh in the face of a two metre separation. But its case fatality rate is only 0.2% and there is a vaccine, so provided the anti-vax cretins do not convert too many to its cause, we can maintain the herd immunity.
With the coronavirus, there is no immunity and no vaccine. The cases in the UK before lockdown doubled every 3 to 4 days. Maths would tell us that with that doubling and a case fatality rate of 1%, going for herd immunity would have resulted in most of the UK becoming infected within a month and 500,000 fatalities before the end of the next month.
Models are never accurate, but keep in mind that the Spanish Flu killed 228,000 in the UK alone, and that was with lockdown measures.
Yes, this will all pass, once there is a vaccine and we can all sensibly create a herd immunity without killing hundreds of thousands. I am still concerned about how many, ultimately, we will lose before we get that vaccine.
Some recent reports put the case fatality rate for coronavirus as low as 0.38%. Let's hope that's true.
Most importantly, the American public will learn what a complete and utter asshole Donald Trump is.
Again, we can hope.
In the meantime, I'm still pissed that we lost Tim Brooke-Taylor.
